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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 17 at the 39

New Orleans Saints 49 – Los Angeles Rams 21

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-T.Morstead punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Drescher, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +3.44 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 39, worth -1.47 EP
KICK +0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 48, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.87 EP