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Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
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New York Giants

HC Ben McAdoo
Sunday 2016-11-20 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread 7.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

CHI
37.8%
NYG
62.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CHI offense: -0.098 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • NYG offense: -0.104 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • NYG defense: -0.045 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • QB edge to NYG: Eli Manning (NYG) -0.043 vs Jay Cutler (CHI) -0.096 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CHI 18
–
NYG 22
Projected margin: NYG by 4 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

CHI

Deiondre' Hall CB Doubtful Ankle
Bobby Massie T Doubtful Concussion
Mitch Unrein DE Doubtful Back
Bryce Callahan CB Questionable Hamstring
Eddie Goldman DT Questionable Ankle
Pernell McPhee LB Questionable Knee
Tracy Porter CB Questionable Knee
Eddie Royal WR Questionable Toe
Josh Sitton G Questionable Ankle
Marquess Wilson WR Questionable Foot
Willie Young LB Questionable Ankle

NYG

Brett Jones C Out Calf
Justin Pugh G Out Knee
Orleans Darkwa RB Questionable Lower Leg
Adam Gettis G Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 16
–
NYG 22

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:54 TD CHI (9:54) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass deep right to 86-Z.Miller for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – NYG 0
  • Q1 04:07 TD NYG (4:07) (No Huddle) 23-R.Jennings left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 6 – NYG 6
  • Q1 00:29 FG CHI (:29) 4-C.Barth 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 9 – NYG 6
  • Q2 08:39 TD CHI (8:39) 33-J.Langford left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 15 – NYG 6
  • Q2 03:38 FG NYG (3:38) 5-R.Gould 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. CHI 16 – NYG 9
  • Q3 11:09 TD NYG (11:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 45-W.Tye for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 16 – NYG 15
  • Q3 06:54 TD NYG (6:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 87-S.Shepard for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 16 – NYG 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 2 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 92%

    (4:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short middle to 87-S.Shepard to CHI 2 for 15 yards (22-C.LeBlanc, 50-J.Freeman).

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 6 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 86%

    (:29) 4-C.Barth 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (13:25) 9-B.Wing punts 54 yards to CHI 14, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 19-E.Royal MUFFS catch, and recovers at CHI 13. 19-E.Royal to CHI 21 for 8 yards (51-Z.DeOssie). Officially, a punt for 55 yards.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 33
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 66%

    (4:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short left to 23-R.Jennings pushed ob at CHI 28 for 5 yards (26-D.Bush). CHI-22-C.LeBlanc was injured during the play.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 10 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 77%

    (3:38) 5-R.Gould 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 16 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 42%

    (:14) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 28 yards to NYG 14, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (10:16) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to NYG 25, Center-48-P.Scales. 17-D.Harris pushed ob at NYG 38 for 13 yards (48-P.Scales). PENALTY on NYG-26-O.Darkwa, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 31. Officially, a return for 6 yards.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 8 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (5:26) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to NYG 19, Center-48-P.Scales. 17-D.Harris pushed ob at NYG 27 for 8 yards (27-S.McManis).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 9 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (3:19) 9-B.Wing punts 36 yards to CHI 20, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 19-E.Royal.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 8 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 66%

    (13:37) 4-C.Barth 51 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:56) 9-B.Wing punts 43 yards to CHI 14, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 37-B.Callahan.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 18 at the 94
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (12:01) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 53 yards to NYG 41, Center-48-P.Scales. 17-D.Harris MUFFS catch, touched at NYG 40, recovered by NYG-24-E.Apple at NYG 31. 24-E.Apple to NYG 31 for no gain (27-S.McManis). Officially, a punt for 54 yards.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (9:47) 9-B.Wing punts 42 yards to CHI 18, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 19-E.Royal.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (7:25) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 67 yards to NYG 6, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 72 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (4:47) 9-B.Wing punts 46 yards to CHI 26, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 19-E.Royal ran ob at CHI 30 for 4 yards (57-K.Robinson).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 7 at the 67 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:40) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to NYG 23, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 77 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:13) 9-B.Wing punts 45 yards to CHI 32, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 19-E.Royal to CHI 32 for no gain (51-Z.DeOssie, 17-D.Harris). PENALTY on CHI-31-C.Prosinski, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 32.