4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 73

Chicago Bears 16 – New York Giants 22

What Actually Happened

(7:25) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 67 yards to NYG 6, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.18 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 73, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.48 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 31, worth -1.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP