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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 69

Chicago Bears 16 – New York Giants 22

What Actually Happened

(5:26) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to NYG 19, Center-48-P.Scales. 17-D.Harris pushed ob at NYG 27 for 8 yards (27-S.McManis).

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.88 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 69, worth -3.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 27, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model