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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 72

New York Giants 22 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(4:47) 9-B.Wing punts 46 yards to CHI 26, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 19-E.Royal ran ob at CHI 30 for 4 yards (57-K.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.12 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 72, worth -3.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.06 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 30, worth -1.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP