Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 77

New York Giants 22 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(3:13) 9-B.Wing punts 45 yards to CHI 32, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 19-E.Royal to CHI 32 for no gain (51-Z.DeOssie, 17-D.Harris). PENALTY on CHI-31-C.Prosinski, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 32.

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +0.49 EP
66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 77, worth -4.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model