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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 57

New York Giants 22 – Chicago Bears 16

What Actually Happened

(12:56) 9-B.Wing punts 43 yards to CHI 14, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 37-B.Callahan.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.76 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 57, worth -2.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 17, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model