Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 71

Chicago Bears 16 – New York Giants 16

What Actually Happened

(10:16) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to NYG 25, Center-48-P.Scales. 17-D.Harris pushed ob at NYG 38 for 13 yards (48-P.Scales). PENALTY on NYG-26-O.Darkwa, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 31. Officially, a return for 6 yards.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 71, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model