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Arizona Cardinals

HC Bruce Arians
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2016-11-20 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 2.0 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

ARI
40.3%
MIN
59.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIN defense: -0.124 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • ARI offense: -0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • ARI defense: -0.167 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • MIN offense: -0.050 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

ARI 21
–
MIN 24
Projected margin: MIN by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 11

ARI

Corey Peters DT Doubtful Foot
Deone Bucannon S Questionable Ankle
Tyrann Mathieu S Questionable Shoulder
Tharold Simon CB Questionable Ankle

MIN

Sharrif Floyd DT Out Knee
Eric Kendricks LB Questionable Hip
Captain Munnerlyn CB Questionable Ankle
Marcus Sherels CB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 24
–
MIN 30

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:30 TD MIN (10:30) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass incomplete deep right to 19-A.Thielen. Minnesota challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – MIN 6
  • Q1 04:10 TD ARI (4:10) (Run formation) 31-D.Johnson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – MIN 7
  • Q2 10:08 FG ARI (10:08) (Field Goal formation) 7-C.Catanzaro 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-D.Butler. ARI 10 – MIN 7
  • Q2 07:19 TD MIN (7:19) 44-M.Asiata up the middle to ARI 1 for 1 yard (20-D.Bucannon; 97-J.Mauro). Minnesota challenged the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 44-M.Asiata up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 10 – MIN 13
  • Q2 03:23 TD MIN (3:23) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short left intended for 12-Jo.Brown INTERCEPTED by 29-X.Rhodes at MIN 0. 29-X.Rhodes for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 10 – MIN 19
  • Q2 00:58 TD ARI (:58) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short middle to 84-J.Gresham for 29 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 16 – MIN 20
  • Q3 15:00 TD MIN 7-C.Catanzaro kicks 69 yards from ARI 35 to MIN -4. 84-C.Patterson for 104 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 17 – MIN 26
  • Q3 00:07 FG MIN (:07) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. ARI 17 – MIN 30
  • Q4 07:28 TD ARI (7:28) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer pass short right to 31-D.Johnson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 23 – MIN 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (13:33) (Punt formation) 2-D.Butler punts 36 yards to MIN 33, Center-46-A.Brewer. 35-M.Sherels ran ob at ARI 44 for 23 yards (2-D.Butler).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 11 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:42) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 53 yards to ARI 12, Center-47-K.McDermott. 12-Jo.Brown to ARI 18 for 6 yards (40-K.Brothers). PENALTY on ARI-21-P.Peterson, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at ARI 12.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 2 at the 16
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 94%

    (10:08) (Field Goal formation) 7-C.Catanzaro 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-D.Butler.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:59) 2-D.Butler punts 48 yards to MIN 24, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 60%

    (9:53) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Patterson (41-M.Cooper).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 15 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (7:47) 2-D.Butler punts 49 yards to MIN 18, Center-46-A.Brewer. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 29 for 11 yards (52-Z.Gooden).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 16 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:30) 18-J.Locke punts 50 yards to ARI 27, Center-47-K.McDermott. 12-Jo.Brown to ARI 31 for 4 yards (40-K.Brothers).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 97%

    (:07) (Field Goal formation) 2-K.Forbath 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (13:34) (Punt formation) 2-D.Butler punts 40 yards to MIN 16, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (6:10) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 50 yards to ARI 21, Center-47-K.McDermott. 12-Jo.Brown pushed ob at MIN 47 for 32 yards (18-J.Locke).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 4 at the 85 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (2:33) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 72 yards to ARI 13, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-40-K.Brothers.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 6 at the 66 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 40%

    (:44) (Shotgun) 3-C.Palmer sacked at ARI 19 for -15 yards (99-D.Hunter).