Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 4 at the 85

Minnesota Vikings 30 – Arizona Cardinals 24

(2:33) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 72 yards to ARI 13, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-40-K.Brothers.

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.50 EP
52% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 85, worth -4.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model