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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 69

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(13:33) (Punt formation) 2-D.Butler punts 36 yards to MIN 33, Center-46-A.Brewer. 35-M.Sherels ran ob at ARI 44 for 23 yards (2-D.Butler).

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 69, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 27, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model