Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 67

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Minnesota Vikings 27

(7:47) 2-D.Butler punts 49 yards to MIN 18, Center-46-A.Brewer. 35-M.Sherels to MIN 29 for 11 yards (52-Z.Gooden).

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.68 EP
74% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -3.77 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model