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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 16

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(10:08) (Field Goal formation) 7-C.Catanzaro 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-2-D.Butler.

The Three Options

GO +2.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.90 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 16, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP