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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 72

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Minnesota Vikings 27

What Actually Happened

(13:59) 2-D.Butler punts 48 yards to MIN 24, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.63 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 72, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 30, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model