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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 56

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Minnesota Vikings 30

What Actually Happened

(13:34) (Punt formation) 2-D.Butler punts 40 yards to MIN 16, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 35-M.Sherels.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.56 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 56, worth -2.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP