4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Adam Gase
@
SD Home

San Diego Chargers

HC Mike McCoy
Sunday 2016-11-13 · 16:05 Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

MIA
32.7%
SD
67.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Philip Rivers (LAC): +0.141 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LAC defense: -0.058 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • LAC offense: +0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 19
–
SD 25
Projected margin: SD by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

MIA

Xavien Howard CB Out Knee
Isa Abdul-Quddus S Questionable Ankle
Jermon Bushrod T Questionable Shoulder
Leonte Carroo WR Questionable Knee
Chris Culliver CB Questionable Knee
MarQueis Gray TE Questionable Ankle
Jelani Jenkins LB Questionable Hand
Dion Sims TE Questionable Concussion
Anthony Steen G Questionable Neck
Jarvis Landry WR Questionable Shoulder
Kenny Stills WR Questionable Calf

SD

Jatavis Brown LB Out Knee
Jeremy Butler WR Out Ankle
Denzel Perryman LB Out Hamstring
Travis Benjamin WR Doubtful Knee
Jahleel Addae S Doubtful Collarbone
Orlando Franklin G Questionable Concussion
Hunter Henry TE Questionable Knee
Craig Mager CB Questionable Concussion
Tyrell Williams WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 31
–
SD 24

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:55 FG LAC (14:55) 2-J.Lambo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens. MIA 0 – SD 3
  • Q2 07:42 TD LAC (7:42) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 85-A.Gates for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – SD 9
  • Q2 02:59 TD MIA (2:59) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 10-K.Stills for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-T.Palepoi]. MIA 6 – SD 10
  • Q3 12:33 TD MIA (12:33) 26-D.Williams up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 13 – SD 10
  • Q3 05:42 TD LAC (5:42) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 86-H.Henry for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 14 – SD 16
  • Q3 01:49 TD MIA (1:49) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 26-D.Williams for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 20 – SD 17
  • Q4 04:13 TD LAC (4:13) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 16-Ty.Williams for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 21 – SD 23
  • Q4 03:01 FG MIA (3:01) 3-A.Franks 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr. MIA 24 – SD 24
  • Q4 01:13 TD MIA (1:13) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left intended for 16-Ty.Williams INTERCEPTED by 47-K.Alonso [24-I.Abdul-Quddus] at MIA 40. 47-K.Alonso for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 30 – SD 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 9 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:11) 8-D.Kaser punts 54 yards to MIA 8, Center-47-M.Windt. 19-J.Grant to MIA 11 for 3 yards (34-D.Watt). Penalty on MIA-31-M.Thomas, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 14 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 38%

    (5:44) 4-M.Darr punts 40 yards to LAC 3, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-35-W.Aikens.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 4 at the 91
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (4:41) 8-D.Kaser punts 55 yards to MIA 36, Center-47-M.Windt. 19-J.Grant MUFFS catch, touched at MIA 36, and recovers at MIA 38. 19-J.Grant to MIA 38 for no gain (58-To.Williams).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 9 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (3:06) 4-M.Darr punts 55 yards to LAC 6, Center-92-J.Denney. 89-I.Burse to LAC 27 for 21 yards (45-M.Hull).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 7 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 78%

    (14:55) 2-J.Lambo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 1 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (12:42) 4-M.Darr punts 57 yards to LAC 17, Center-92-J.Denney. 89-I.Burse to LAC 20 for 3 yards (31-M.Thomas, 92-J.Denney).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 15 at the 36
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 57%

    (:55) 8-D.Kaser punts 29 yards to MIA 7, impetus ends at MIA 1, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-53-J.Perry.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 4 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (13:51) 8-D.Kaser punts 55 yards to MIA 7, Center-47-M.Windt. 19-J.Grant MUFFS catch, touched at MIA 7, RECOVERED by LAC-25-D.Stuckey at MIA 5. 25-D.Stuckey to MIA 5 for no gain (19-J.Grant).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 11 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:46) 4-M.Darr punts 59 yards to LAC 22, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-40-L.Pitts. PENALTY on LAC-29-C.Mager, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 22.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 19 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (5:21) 4-M.Darr punts 47 yards to LAC 21, Center-92-J.Denney. 89-I.Burse to LAC 42 for 21 yards (46-N.Hewitt).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 9 at the 9 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (3:01) 3-A.Franks 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-92-J.Denney, Holder-4-M.Darr.