Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 62

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(12:11) 8-D.Kaser punts 54 yards to MIA 8, Center-47-M.Windt. 19-J.Grant to MIA 11 for 3 yards (34-D.Watt). Penalty on MIA-31-M.Thomas, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +3.12 EP
64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 62, worth -3.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model