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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 27

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 2-J.Lambo 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.65 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 27, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 37, worth -1.74 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model