Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 62

Los Angeles Chargers 17 – Miami Dolphins 21

What Actually Happened

(13:51) 8-D.Kaser punts 55 yards to MIA 7, Center-47-M.Windt. 19-J.Grant MUFFS catch, touched at MIA 7, RECOVERED by LAC-25-D.Stuckey at MIA 5. 25-D.Stuckey to MIA 5 for no gain (19-J.Grant).

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.28 EP
51% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 62, worth -3.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model