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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 61

Miami Dolphins 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:06) 4-M.Darr punts 55 yards to LAC 6, Center-92-J.Denney. 89-I.Burse to LAC 27 for 21 yards (45-M.Hull).

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.47 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 20, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model