Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 19 at the 68

Miami Dolphins 21 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

(5:21) 4-M.Darr punts 47 yards to LAC 21, Center-92-J.Denney. 89-I.Burse to LAC 42 for 21 yards (46-N.Hewitt).

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.22 EP
76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model