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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 1 at the 74

Miami Dolphins 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(12:42) 4-M.Darr punts 57 yards to LAC 17, Center-92-J.Denney. 89-I.Burse to LAC 20 for 3 yards (31-M.Thomas, 92-J.Denney).

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.88 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.74 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP