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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Mularkey
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San Diego Chargers

HC Mike McCoy
Sunday 2016-11-06 · 16:25 Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

TEN
43.5%
SD
56.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: +0.052 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • LAC defense: -0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Philip Rivers (LAC): +0.111 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TEN on 3 more days rest than LAC

Predicted Final Score

TEN 22
–
SD 25
Projected margin: SD by 3 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 9

TEN

Quinton Spain G Out Knee
Delanie Walker TE Questionable Groin
Rashad Johnson S Questionable Neck
Aaron Wallace LB Questionable Shoulder

SD

Jatavis Brown LB Out Knee
Hunter Henry TE Out Knee
Craig Mager CB Out Concussion
Denzel Perryman LB Doubtful Hamstring
Jahleel Addae S Doubtful Collarbone
Jeremiah Attaochu LB Doubtful Ankle
Travis Benjamin WR Questionable Knee
Tyrell Williams WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 9 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 35
–
SD 43

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 31 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:07 TD LAC (10:07) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 85-A.Gates for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – SD 6
  • Q1 04:15 FG LAC (4:15) 2-J.Lambo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens. TEN 0 – SD 9
  • Q2 14:22 TD LAC (14:22) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 16-Ty.Williams for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – SD 15
  • Q2 11:21 TD TEN (11:21) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 18-R.Matthews for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – SD 16
  • Q2 01:35 FG LAC (1:35) 2-J.Lambo 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens. TEN 7 – SD 19
  • Q2 00:19 TD TEN (:19) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 18-R.Matthews for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – SD 19
  • Q3 12:28 TD TEN (12:28) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 20 – SD 19
  • Q3 05:35 TD LAC (5:35) 28-M.Gordon up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 21 – SD 25
  • Q3 02:44 TD LAC (2:44) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota right end to LAC 49 for -2 yards (56-K.Toomer). FUMBLES (56-K.Toomer), touched at LAC 49, RECOVERED by LAC-20-D.Lowery at TEN 36. 20-D.Lowery for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 21 – SD 32
  • Q4 09:55 TD TEN (9:55) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 82-D.Walker for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 27 – SD 33
  • Q4 06:10 FG LAC (6:10) 2-J.Lambo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens. TEN 28 – SD 36
  • Q4 05:01 TD LAC (5:01) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left intended for 13-K.Wright INTERCEPTED by 24-B.Flowers at TEN 33. 24-B.Flowers for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 28 – SD 42
  • Q4 02:53 TD TEN (2:53) 29-D.Murray up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 34 – SD 43

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 6 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (9:02) 6-B.Kern punts 36 yards to 50, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 89-I.Burse.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 6 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 94%

    (4:15) 2-J.Lambo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (2:17) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to LAC 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 89-I.Burse.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 92%

    (11:59) 29-D.Murray up the middle to LAC 16 for 1 yard (51-K.Emanuel).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 5 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (5:22) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to LAC 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 89-I.Burse to LAC 25 for 3 yards (36-L.Sims, 31-K.Byard). PENALTY on LAC-23-D.McCoil, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at LAC 25.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 2 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (2:42) 8-D.Kaser punts 43 yards to TEN 21, Center-47-M.Windt. 87-M.Mariani MUFFS catch, and recovers at TEN 21.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (1:35) 2-J.Lambo 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (:30) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to LAC 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 89-I.Burse to LAC 22 for no gain (50-N.Palmer).

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 2 at the 58
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (12:58) 8-D.Kaser punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 1 at the 18
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 91%

    (6:10) 2-J.Lambo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.