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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 5

Los Angeles Chargers 16 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(1:35) 2-J.Lambo 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.53 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 5, worth -0.63 EP
KICK +1.53 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model