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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Tennessee Titans
4th & 1 at the 17
Tennessee Titans 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 16
What Actually Happened
(11:59) 29-D.Murray up the middle to LAC 16 for 1 yard (51-K.Emanuel).
The Three Options
GO
+3.07 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.79 EP
- 34% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.20 EP
KICK
+1.99 EP
- 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
- 8% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT
+0.46 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.46 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
