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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 15

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(4:15) 2-J.Lambo 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

The Three Options

GO +1.66 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.50 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 15, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model