Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 68

Tennessee Titans 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 16

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to LAC 22, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 89-I.Burse to LAC 25 for 3 yards (36-L.Sims, 31-K.Byard). PENALTY on LAC-23-D.McCoil, Unnecessary Roughness, 13 yards, enforced at LAC 25.

The Three Options

GO -1.13 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.98 EP
54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model