4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 68

Tennessee Titans 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 9

What Actually Happened

(2:17) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to LAC 13, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 89-I.Burse.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.57 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model