4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
MIN Away

Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
@
CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC John Fox
Monday 2016-10-31 · 20:30 Soldier Field, Chicago US ☀️ Clear Spread -5.5 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

MIN
50.6%
CHI
49.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIN offense: -0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • MIN defense: -0.205 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • CHI defense: +0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • Jay Cutler (CHI): -0.032 EPA/dropback in prior starts (CHI starting Jay Cutler in place of Brian Hoyer)
  • CHI on 3 more days rest than MIN

Predicted Final Score

MIN 20
–
CHI 19
Projected margin: MIN by 1 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

MIN

Sharrif Floyd DT Out Knee
Zac Kerin G Out Hand
Jerick McKinnon RB Out Ankle
Andrew Sendejo S Out Ankle
Marcus Sherels CB Questionable Wrist
Cordarrelle Patterson WR Questionable Concussion
MyCole Pruitt TE Questionable Knee
Jarius Wright WR Questionable Ankle

CHI

Deiondre' Hall CB Out Ankle
Eddie Goldman DT Doubtful Ankle
Kyle Long G Doubtful Tricep
Eddie Royal WR Doubtful Toe
Bryce Callahan CB Questionable Hamstring
Jeremy Langford RB Questionable Ankle
Pernell McPhee LB Questionable Knee
Cameron Meredith WR Questionable Stomach
Tracy Porter CB Questionable Knee
Josh Sitton G Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 10
–
CHI 20

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:32 FG CHI (8:32) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. MIN 0 – CHI 3
  • Q2 12:49 FG CHI (12:49) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. MIN 0 – CHI 6
  • Q2 07:54 TD CHI (7:54) 98-M.Unrein reported in as eligible. 24-J.Howard right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – CHI 12
  • Q2 00:30 FG MIN (:30) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke. MIN 3 – CHI 13
  • Q3 09:57 TD CHI (9:57) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short middle to 17-A.Jeffery for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 3 – CHI 19
  • Q4 05:47 TD MIN (5:47) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 9 – CHI 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 5 at the 39
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 48%

    (12:19) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 32 yards to CHI 7, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-57-A.Cole.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 9 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 95%

    (8:32) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (6:51) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 71 yards to CHI 5, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-84-C.Patterson.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 3 at the 88
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (5:26) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 38 yards to 50, Center-48-P.Scales, out of bounds. Head Linesman Ed Walker (#123) injured on the play

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 3 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 37%

    (4:34) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-47-K.McDermott, Touchback.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:22) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to MIN 28, Center-48-P.Scales. 19-A.Thielen to MIN 32 for 4 yards (29-H.Jones-Quartey).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (1:27) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 40 yards to CHI 19, Center-47-K.McDermott. 22-C.LeBlanc to CHI 26 for 7 yards (84-C.Patterson).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 96%

    (12:49) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 10 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (11:35) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 41 yards to CHI 44, Center-47-K.McDermott. 22-C.LeBlanc to MIN 43 for 13 yards (26-T.Waynes).

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 95%

    (:30) (Field Goal formation) 3-B.Walsh 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-18-J.Locke.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (7:12) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 43 yards to CHI 21, Center-47-K.McDermott. 22-C.LeBlanc to CHI 27 for 6 yards (40-K.Brothers).

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 17 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (2:55) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to MIN 13, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 19-A.Thielen.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 2 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 20%

    (14:46) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short right to 82-K.Rudolph to CHI 48 for 3 yards (38-A.Amos).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 11 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 23%

    (12:56) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 39 yards to CHI 10, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 22-C.LeBlanc.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (9:00) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 53 yards to MIN 10, Center-48-P.Scales. 14-S.Diggs to MIN 17 for 7 yards (27-S.McManis).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 6 at the 25
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 82%

    (5:47) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass deep right to 14-S.Diggs for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 5 at the 35 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.58 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 59%

    (:15) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 37 yards to MIN -2, Center-48-P.Scales. 14-S.Diggs to MIN 2 for 4 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski).