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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 51

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Chicago Bears 20

What Actually Happened

(14:46) (Shotgun) 8-S.Bradford pass short right to 82-K.Rudolph to CHI 48 for 3 yards (38-A.Amos).

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.33 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 51, worth -2.81 EP
KICK -1.93 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model