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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 12

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(8:32) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.32 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 12, worth +0.19 EP
KICK +2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 22, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model