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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 5 at the 39

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(12:19) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 32 yards to CHI 7, Center-47-K.McDermott, downed by MIN-57-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.52 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 39, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -0.97 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 48, worth -3.22 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP