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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 17 at the 56

Chicago Bears 20 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(2:55) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 43 yards to MIN 13, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 19-A.Thielen.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.47 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 56, worth -2.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 17, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model