Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 64

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Chicago Bears 20

(7:12) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 43 yards to CHI 21, Center-47-K.McDermott. 22-C.LeBlanc to CHI 27 for 6 yards (40-K.Brothers).

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.84 EP
66% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 64, worth -3.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model