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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 49

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Chicago Bears 20

What Actually Happened

(12:56) (Punt formation) 18-J.Locke punts 39 yards to CHI 10, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 22-C.LeBlanc.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.06 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
KICK -1.72 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model