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New England Patriots

6-1 HC Bill Belichick
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Pittsburgh Steelers

4-3 HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2016-10-23 · 16:25 ET Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread -7.5 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

NE
49.3%
PIT
50.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • PIT offense: +0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • PIT defense: -0.000 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
  • Tom Brady (NE): +0.128 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NE 21 14–28
–
PIT 22 15–29
Projected margin: PIT by 1 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 7

NE

Brandon Bolden RB Questionable Knee
Martellus Bennett TE Questionable Ankle
Jamie Collins LB Questionable Hip
Julian Edelman WR Questionable Foot
Woodrow Hamilton DT Questionable Shoulder
Shea McClellin LB Questionable Concussion
Malcolm Mitchell WR Questionable Hamstring
Elandon Roberts LB Questionable Ankle
Vincent Valentine DT Questionable Back

PIT

Marcus Gilbert T Out Ankle
Cameron Heyward DE Out Hamstring
Ben Roethlisberger QB Out Knee
Shamarko Thomas S Out Groin
Cody Wallace C Out Knee
Markus Wheaton WR Out Shoulder
DeAngelo Williams RB Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 27
–
PIT 16

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:03 TD NE (3:03) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 28-J.White for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – PIT 0
  • Q2 11:01 TD NE (11:01) 29-L.Blount left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – PIT 0
  • Q2 09:10 TD PIT (9:10) (Shotgun) 3-L.Jones pass short left to 88-D.Heyward-Bey for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 14 – PIT 6
  • Q2 00:06 FG PIT (:06) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. NE 14 – PIT 10
  • Q3 08:49 FG PIT (8:49) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. NE 14 – PIT 13
  • Q3 06:27 TD NE (6:27) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 20 – PIT 13
  • Q4 14:49 FG PIT (14:49) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. NE 20 – PIT 16
  • Q4 11:47 TD NE (11:47) 29-L.Blount left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 26 – PIT 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (13:02) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 45 yards to NE 22, Center-60-G.Warren. 11-J.Edelman to NE 32 for 10 yards (44-T.Matakevich).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 PIT 4th & 9 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:52) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 55 yards to NE 16, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (8:16) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 25 yards to PIT 47, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PIT 4th & 13 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 83%

    (4:47) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 21%

    (1:56) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 44 yards to PIT 6, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-38-B.Bolden. The Replay Official reviewed the kick downed ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NE 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:42) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to PIT 34, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 84-A.Brown. PENALTY on PIT-45-R.Nix, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 34.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PIT 4th & 4 at the 28
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 76%

    (8:49) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PIT 4th & 10 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 79%

    (14:49) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PIT 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (10:50) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to NE 29, Center-60-G.Warren. 11-J.Edelman to NE 41 for 12 yards (51-S.Johnson). FUMBLES (51-S.Johnson), RECOVERED by PIT-60-G.Warren at NE 43. 60-G.Warren to NE 43 for no gain (11-J.Edelman).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PIT 4th & 3 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 56%

    (9:05) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 11 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (7:04) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PIT 4th & 13 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:29) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 52 yards to NE 31, Center-60-G.Warren. 80-D.Amendola to NE 37 for 6 yards (51-S.Johnson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 54 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (3:13) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 28 yards to PIT 26, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-43-N.Ebner.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PIT 4th & 3 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 21%

    (1:41) (Shotgun) 3-L.Jones pass short middle to 26-L.Bell to NE 44 for 6 yards (91-J.Collins).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PIT 4th & 11 at the 45 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 32%

    (:16) (Shotgun) 3-L.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 88-D.Heyward-Bey.

    See the full breakdown →