NE @ PIT — 4th & Data

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HC Bill Belichick

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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin

Sunday 2016-10-23 · 16:25 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread -7.5 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

50.6%

PIT

49.4%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

NE offense: +0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
Tom Brady (NE): +0.128 EPA/dropback in prior starts
Landry Jones (PIT) has only 2 prior starts in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

NE 22

–

PIT 21

Projected margin: NE by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

NE

Brandon Bolden RB Questionable Knee

Martellus Bennett TE Questionable Ankle

Jamie Collins LB Questionable Hip

Julian Edelman WR Questionable Foot

Woodrow Hamilton DT Questionable Shoulder

Shea McClellin LB Questionable Concussion

Malcolm Mitchell WR Questionable Hamstring

Elandon Roberts LB Questionable Ankle

Vincent Valentine DT Questionable Back

PIT

Marcus Gilbert T Out Ankle

Cameron Heyward DE Out Hamstring

Ben Roethlisberger QB Out Knee

Shamarko Thomas S Out Groin

Cody Wallace C Out Knee

Markus Wheaton WR Out Shoulder

DeAngelo Williams RB Out Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 27

–

PIT 16

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 0 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 03:03 TD NE (3:03) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 28-J.White for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – PIT 0
Q2 11:01 TD NE (11:01) 29-L.Blount left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – PIT 0
Q2 09:10 TD PIT (9:10) (Shotgun) 3-L.Jones pass short left to 88-D.Heyward-Bey for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 14 – PIT 6
Q2 00:06 FG PIT (:06) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. NE 14 – PIT 10
Q3 08:49 FG PIT (8:49) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. NE 14 – PIT 13
Q3 06:27 TD NE (6:27) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep middle to 87-R.Gronkowski for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 20 – PIT 13
Q4 14:49 FG PIT (14:49) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. NE 20 – PIT 16
Q4 11:47 TD NE (11:47) 29-L.Blount left tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 26 – PIT 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 PIT 4th & 2 at the 67

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP

p(convert) 61%

(13:02) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 45 yards to NE 22, Center-60-G.Warren. 11-J.Edelman to NE 32 for 10 yards (44-T.Matakevich).
Q1 PIT 4th & 9 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36%

(:52) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 55 yards to NE 16, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.
Q2 NE 4th & 7 at the 72

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(8:16) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 25 yards to PIT 47, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.
Q2 PIT 4th & 13 at the 24

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26% p(FG) 83%

(4:47) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.
Q2 NE 4th & 3 at the 50

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP

p(convert) 53% p(FG) 21%

(1:56) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 44 yards to PIT 6, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-38-B.Bolden. The Replay Official reviewed the kick downed ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.
Q3 NE 4th & 12 at the 77

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(13:42) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to PIT 34, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 84-A.Brown. PENALTY on PIT-45-R.Nix, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 34.
Q3 PIT 4th & 4 at the 28

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP

p(convert) 44% p(FG) 76%

(8:49) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.
Q4 PIT 4th & 10 at the 26

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 79%

(14:49) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.
Q4 PIT 4th & 7 at the 72

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(10:50) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 43 yards to NE 29, Center-60-G.Warren. 11-J.Edelman to NE 41 for 12 yards (51-S.Johnson). FUMBLES (51-S.Johnson), RECOVERED by PIT-60-G.Warren at NE 43. 60-G.Warren to NE 43 for no gain (11-J.Edelman).
Q4 PIT 4th & 3 at the 36

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP

p(convert) 50% p(FG) 56%

(9:05) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.
Q4 NE 4th & 11 at the 57

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(7:04) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.
Q4 PIT 4th & 13 at the 83

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 32%

(5:29) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 52 yards to NE 31, Center-60-G.Warren. 80-D.Amendola to NE 37 for 6 yards (51-S.Johnson).
Q4 NE 4th & 1 at the 54 late-game

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP

p(convert) 71%

(3:13) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 28 yards to PIT 26, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-43-N.Ebner.
Q4 PIT 4th & 3 at the 50 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 52% p(FG) 21%

(1:41) (Shotgun) 3-L.Jones pass short middle to 26-L.Bell to NE 44 for 6 yards (91-J.Collins).
Q4 PIT 4th & 11 at the 45 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EP

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 32%

(:16) (Shotgun) 3-L.Jones pass incomplete short middle to 88-D.Heyward-Bey.