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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 50

New England Patriots 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:56) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 44 yards to PIT 6, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-38-B.Bolden. The Replay Official reviewed the kick downed ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.53 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -1.62 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP