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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 13 at the 24

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(4:47) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.05 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 24, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 34, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model