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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 67

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(13:02) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 45 yards to NE 22, Center-60-G.Warren. 11-J.Edelman to NE 32 for 10 yards (44-T.Matakevich).

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.26 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 67, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 25, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP