Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 11 at the 57

New England Patriots 27 – Pittsburgh Steelers 16

(7:04) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 57 yards to end zone, Center-49-J.Cardona, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.69 EP
68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model