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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 54

New England Patriots 27 – Pittsburgh Steelers 16

What Actually Happened

(3:13) (Punt formation) 6-R.Allen punts 28 yards to PIT 26, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-43-N.Ebner.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.92 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.08 EP