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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 50

Pittsburgh Steelers 16 – New England Patriots 27

What Actually Happened

(1:41) (Shotgun) 3-L.Jones pass short middle to 26-L.Bell to NE 44 for 6 yards (91-J.Collins).

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.15 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 50, worth -1.67 EP
KICK -0.88 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model