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Indianapolis Colts

HC Chuck Pagano
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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Mularkey
Sunday 2016-10-23 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

IND
45.6%
TEN
54.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • IND offense: +0.038 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • TEN offense: -0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Andrew Luck (IND): -0.027 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • IND defense: +0.076 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

IND 21
–
TEN 23
Projected margin: TEN by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

IND

Dwayne Allen TE Out Ankle
Henry Anderson DT Out Knee
Phillip Dorsett WR Out Foot
Zach Kerr DT Out Ankle
Curt Maggitt LB Out Ankle
Jack Mewhort G Out Tricep
Donte Moncrief WR Out Shoulder
T.J. Green S Questionable Knee
T.Y. Hilton WR Questionable Hip
Darius Butler CB Questionable Calf
Jonotthan Harrison C Questionable Illness

TEN

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 34
–
TEN 26

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:21 TD TEN (9:21) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 77-T.Lewan for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. 77 - Lewan was eligible on the play IND 0 – TEN 6
  • Q1 04:50 TD IND (4:50) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 23-F.Gore for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 6 – TEN 6
  • Q2 10:23 TD IND (10:23) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 13-T.Hilton for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – TEN 6
  • Q2 07:10 FG IND (7:10) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. IND 17 – TEN 6
  • Q2 00:39 TD TEN (:39) 29-D.Murray up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. IND 17 – TEN 12
  • Q3 03:51 FG IND (3:51) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee. IND 20 – TEN 13
  • Q4 12:43 TD TEN (12:43) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 82-D.Walker for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 20 – TEN 19
  • Q4 06:07 FG TEN (6:07) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. IND 20 – TEN 23
  • Q4 02:00 TD IND (2:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 84-J.Doyle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-D.Morgan]. IND-71-D.Good was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. IND 26 – TEN 23
  • Q4 01:55 TD IND (1:55) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota sacked at TEN 18 for -7 yards (99-T.McGill). FUMBLES (99-T.McGill) [99-T.McGill], RECOVERED by IND-98-R.Mathis at TEN 14. 98-R.Mathis for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 33 – TEN 23
  • Q4 00:48 FG TEN (:48) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. IND 34 – TEN 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (3:27) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to IND 21, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-C.Rogers to IND 28 for 7 yards (48-B.Brinkley). PENALTY on IND-25-P.Robinson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at IND 28.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 5 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (2:21) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 60 yards to TEN 17, Center-45-M.Overton. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 24 for 7 yards (28-J.Todman; 41-M.Farley).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 7 at the 36
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 61%

    (13:51) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 29 yards to IND 7, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-31-K.Byard.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (7:10) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.50 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (5:37) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to IND 7, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 2 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 26%

    (2:23) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (12:31) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (10:01) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 62 yards to IND 1, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-C.Rogers ran ob at IND 12 for 11 yards.

  • Q3 IND 4th & 13 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 94%

    (3:51) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 44%

    (9:49) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 39 yards to TEN 20, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 5 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 75%

    (6:07) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 26 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 82%

    (:48) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.