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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 63

Tennessee Titans 13 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(10:01) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 62 yards to IND 1, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 80-C.Rogers ran ob at IND 12 for 11 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.30 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 63, worth -3.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model