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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 15

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(3:51) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.19 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 15, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model