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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 55

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(12:31) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.63 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 55, worth -3.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.21 EP