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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 59

Indianapolis Colts 20 – Tennessee Titans 20

What Actually Happened

(9:49) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 39 yards to TEN 20, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.50 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 59, worth -2.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP