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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 36

Tennessee Titans 6 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(13:51) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 29 yards to IND 7, Center-48-B.Brinkley, downed by TEN-31-K.Byard.

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.18 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 36, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 46, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.30 EP