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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 26

Tennessee Titans 23 – Indianapolis Colts 34

What Actually Happened

(:48) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +3.85 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.60 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 36, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model