4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
PHI Away

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
@
WAS Home

Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
Sunday 2016-10-16 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

PHI
46.7%
WAS
53.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: +0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.021 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • WAS defense: +0.041 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • QB edge to PHI: Kirk Cousins (WAS) +0.205 vs Carson Wentz (PHI) +0.257 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

PHI 21
–
WAS 23
Projected margin: WAS by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

PHI

Fletcher Cox DT Questionable Ankle
Leodis McKelvin CB Questionable Hamstring

WAS

Josh Doctson WR Out Achilles
Jordan Reed TE Questionable Concussion
Bashaud Breeland CB Questionable Ankle
Su'a Cravens S Questionable Concussion
Dashaun Phillips CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 20
–
WAS 27

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 00:57 TD WAS (:57) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep left to 80-J.Crowder for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 0 – WAS 6
  • Q2 07:53 TD WAS (7:53) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 85-V.Davis for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on WAS-85-V.Davis, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. PHI 0 – WAS 13
  • Q2 07:48 TD PHI 3-D.Hopkins kicks 66 yards from WAS 20 to PHI 14. 28-W.Smallwood for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – WAS 14
  • Q2 04:07 TD PHI (4:07) 8-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 85-V.Davis INTERCEPTED by 27-M.Jenkins at PHI 36. 27-M.Jenkins for 64 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – WAS 14
  • Q2 00:10 TD WAS (:10) 79-T.Nsekhe reported in as eligible. 31-M.Jones left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 14 – WAS 20
  • Q3 08:44 FG WAS (8:44) 3-D.Hopkins 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. PHI 14 – WAS 24
  • Q4 13:01 FG PHI (13:01) 6-C.Sturgis 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 17 – WAS 24
  • Q4 09:48 FG WAS (9:48) 3-D.Hopkins 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. PHI 17 – WAS 27
  • Q4 05:25 FG PHI (5:25) 6-C.Sturgis 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 20 – WAS 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 6 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:26) 8-D.Jones punts 41 yards to WAS 17, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 21 for 4 yards (13-J.Huff).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.92 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (8:15) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Touchback.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:13) 8-D.Jones punts 55 yards to WAS 25, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 35 for 10 yards (54-K.Grugier-Hill). PENALTY on WAS-50-M.Spaight, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 33.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (5:18) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to PHI 21, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 43-D.Sproles pushed ob at PHI 35 for 14 yards (50-M.Spaight).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 21%

    (2:31) 8-D.Jones punts 36 yards to WAS 14, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, out of bounds. PENALTY on PHI-90-M.Smith, Chop Block, 15 yards, enforced at WAS 14.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 9 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:26) 8-D.Jones punts 50 yards to WAS 10, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 11 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 94%

    (8:44) 3-D.Hopkins 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 7 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (4:10) 8-D.Jones punts 47 yards to WAS 14, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 15 for 1 yard (13-J.Huff; 42-C.Maragos).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (1:57) 5-T.Way punts 50 yards to PHI 7, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 43-D.Sproles pushed ob at PHI 10 for 3 yards (96-H.Bates).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 88%

    (13:01) 6-C.Sturgis 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 13 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 66%

    (9:48) 3-D.Hopkins 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 9 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (5:25) 6-C.Sturgis 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 8 at the 74 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (4:17) 5-T.Way punts 58 yards to PHI 16, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 30 for 14 yards (50-M.Spaight; 51-W.Compton).